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Posts Tagged ‘home buying’

I just finished the 4th of July week working with a couple moving here from Illinois for a new job.  We spent all week looking at homes for them and their family.  Of course we looked at many resale homes in different neighborhoods, but also looked at several new construction homes.  They finally chose a new construction home for several reasons regarding the floorplan, yard and overall neighborhood.  One of the factors that won them over was price.  They bought in a neighborhood in Mooresville that is like several in the area in that it was started by one builder who ran into problems during the economic downturn, and the neighborhood was bought by another builder or developer.  The new builders who buy under these circumstances often get the lots and infrastructure at a very good price.  That enables them to price their new homes very competitively.  They have to be priced well in order to compete with resale homes, many of which are foreclosures or short sales which often sell at relatively low prices.  In some cases, the new builders have re-set the price range of the neighborhood to lower levels to attact buyers who now tend to look at overall lower price points.  That doesn’t do the original neighborhood owners any good since it makes it harder for them to sell is they choose, but that’s what has to be done by the builders to compete.New House Under Construction

This is a particularly good time to buy new construction because of these circumstances of builders buying less expensive property.  I suspect that this peculiar situation will eventually come to an end.  Most of the well-located neighborhoods that were available to builders have been purchased and are selling out.  When the builders want to expand, they well may have to pay more for the land and will have to pay for installation of infrastructure (surveys, roads, sewers, street lights, etc..  At some point, particularly as the inventory of all for sale housing drops further, they will no longer be able to offer such great prices on new houses.

If you’re thinking you’d like to move and buy a brand new house, now’s likely the best opportunity you’ll see for a long time.  Often the builders can offer special incentives on options, equipment and mortgage rates to add to the value of the deal.  Many builders are also carrying inventory homes that are ready to go or close to it so that you can choose final colors and finish materials.  Even the custom builders are eager to build something for you at a good price.

Let me know if you want help with that!  Builders market to real estate agents all the time because they know we are working with the bulk of buyers.  They don’t discount their prices by selling directly to buyers, and buyers are well-served by having an agent working for them to help them get the best negotiated deal.  We do this all the time, so are not intimidated by the process.

Call me if you want to investigate what’s out there.

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Having gone through the recent holiday season and the social gatherings the holidays bring, I once again got asked a particular question very frequently.  Fortunately for me, lots of folks know I’m a Realtor, so they ask me how’s the market.  Of course, most don’t plan to move anytime soon, but like lots of people, they view the health of the real estate market as a bellweather for the health of the overall market.  My standard response lately has been, “Houses are selling, buyers are buying.  My buyers are quite happy.  My sellers are not happy.”  The reasons are that in fact, our sales volume has been going up over the last six or seven months.  However, that has been accomplished at the expense of overall pricing.  Look at the chart below which shows average per square foot prices (including land) for our local multiple listing service area based on a 12 month moving average.  Prices have been going down in each price category.

Ave price per sq. ft. CMLS 12-11

Fortunately, our inventory is also going down from 12.5 months of inventory in December of 2010 (at then current sales rates) to 9.1 months of inventory in December of 2011.  As inventory goes down, we will eventually get to an equilibrium point where there is balance between buyers’ market and sellers’ market.  Historically that has been at 5-6 months of inventory. Only then will we likely see an overall increase in prices.  Another question for which there’s no easy answer is that of how many foreclosure homes will be added to the market over the next few years.  Lenders don’t want to dump all of their inventory on the market at once since that would dilute the prices of all homes on the market.  Foreclosures are currently down to 2007 levels according to a report on MSN Real Estate HERE, but the article explains that there are underlying issues that could change the rate of foreclosure in the future.

One reason for encouragement here in the Lake Norman NC area is that according to recent reports, North Carolina is one of the top five destinations for people moving from other, largely northern, areas.  See the article about this HERE.  Real estate agents in our area can attest that many of the buyers they are working with are from northern states, and many of them have come at the recommendation of friends who’ve already made the move.  As they move to our area, they will help to reduce the excess inventory and finally see some increase in home prices.

I keep an eye on expert opinion on the economy from many sources.  We don’t yet have full agreement that things are turning around, but I certainly see more positive than negative outlooks now, and that’s encouraging.  For homebuyers, that positive sentiment and confidence in the future is key to their willingness to sign on the dotted line.

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Yesterday was one of those days that stick in my mind as a Realtor.  That’s because I closed on a Lake Norman property and got a verbal agreement on another Mooresville property on the same day.  That’s the kind of day I really like. House Deed The funny thing is that the same thing happened last month.  I mean, what are the odds on that?  In any case, I’d like to think that this is a confirmation that there are ready, willing and able buyers out there even though we’ve got all kinds of difficult issues in our economy.  The fact is that in spite of the negative news, there are always people out there who want or need to buy real estate due to a job move, have a need to downsize or upsize, or are ready to fulfill a dream that they’ve been working on for many years.  The ups and downs of our economy can affect people whose choice to move is optional.  For example if they want to have more confidence in the future of their employment, they may choose to wait and see how that turns out.  But there are many others whose personal circumstances allow them to make the decision right now.  The goal for sellers is to ensure their home is very attractive and priced right, meaning competitive with the alternatives (their competitors) in the market.  The house that is going under contract for my buyers this week is one of 18 we saw over the weekend.  Those 18 were selected out of a list of 93 properties that met our search criteria.

Yes, there’s lots of competition out there, and getting an offer almost seems like winning the lottery.  Fortunately, sellers can improve their odds to better than lottery rates by following the advice of their listing agent on condition, presentation, and price.

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Several weeks ago I was driving to Raleigh to attend a meeting of the Board of Directors of the NC Association of Realtors.  About an hour into my drive, I got a call from a reporter from The Statesville Record & Landmark, Donna Swicegood (I know, but I was using my “Bluetooth” earpiece).  I knew Donna from my days managing a Century 21 real estate office in Troutman.  We met while both serving on the board of the Statesville version of Crimestoppers, so it was good to hear from her. 

Donna had been assigned to work on a special supplement called Investing in Our Community, and one of the articles she was writing focused on the local real estate market.  She proceeded to ask me some questions about the local real estate market and the advisability of purchasing real estate right now.  Of course, no self-respecting real estate agent would ever generally advise against buying.  But also no self-respecting real estate agent would advise someone to buy when it was not in their best interests, given their particular circumstances.  The fact is that in every market, up or down, there are people who need to sell and people who need to buy in order to reach some specific goal in their plans.  It may be because their family is growing, they’re moving for a job change, or the kids have flown the nest and they want to down-size.  All kinds of people have all kinds of stories and reasons to do what they need to do.  It’s the role of a good Realtor® to understand what people need to accomplish and help them get it done.

So with that in mind, I answered Donna’s questions and looked forward to seeing the results in print.  The overall thrust of my comments were that if you have a desire or need to buy real estate, I don’t think prices are likely to drop substantially from where we are now, so waiting for lower prices is risky.  The risk is that even if prices go a bit lower, interest rates, which are still historically low, may very well start back up, wiping out any savings on mortgage payments.  The economists just can’t predict with any accuracy what will happen in the next 6 to 12 months, but one thing we do know right now- housing is relatively affordable compared to years past, so trying to time the market may not be wise, particularly if it makes sense in terms of your housing goals.  Our area continues to be a popular destination for people who want to move from other parts of the country, and we’re starting to see some positive indicators on the economic front.  As demand picks up, so eventually will prices. 

You can read the entire article here: R&L Special Edition 5-1-11 Suther Quotes

Thanks to Donna Swicegood for the phone call and interview.

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One of the many factors that caused the housing debacle is that lenders were able to handle loan applications and underwriting, then sell the loans to investors in bundles.  Some say the effect of this was that the lenders were not very careful about qualifying borrowers, because they weren’t likely to be holding the mortgage if and when the borrower defaulted. Congress is working on rules to keep that type of behavior from happening again.  One of them, section 941 of  The Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act of 2010 (Dodd-Frank Act) requires lenders that sell mortgage loans to retain 5% of the credit risk unless the mortgage is a qualified residential mortgage or is otherwise exempt (for example, FHA mortgages are also exempt).  Right now, one of the requirements for a Qualified Residential Mortgage (QRM) is that the borrower will provide a minimum 20% down payment.  In contrast, right now many borrowers with a good credit score and proof of adequate income can get a conventional loan with a 5% down payment according to Adam Lane of Coldwell Banker Mortgage.  All of this is set to go into motion later this April with full implementation in April of 2012.  One of the concerns is that this will tend to drive even more loans to FHA and other government-backed loans at a time when everyone agrees that we need to reduce the amount of government guaranteed mortgage loans.  Otherwise, the population of people who’ll be able to otherwise legitimately qualify for a loan will be greatly reduced because of so few being able to come up with 20% down. 

 There will be many discussion over the next year trying to find some balance of lending rules that provide for adequate mortgage credit so that the housing bust can turn around while keeping lenders from making crazy loans that end up in foreclosure.  HERE is some additional info from Real Estate Insider News that includes a good video discussion from Realtor Magazine.  HERE is a good Regulatory Issues Brief from the National Association of Realtors on this subject.

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The recent increase in gasoline prices has got me thinking about what, if any, impact it will have on the real estate market.  Gas prices for regular around Mooresville, NC are approaching $3.60/gallon- OUCH!  Like any economic predictions, this is one that has many possible outcomes.  Here are a few things to consider:

- Higher gas prices mean higher transportation (commuting) costs.  Will that cause people to be motivated to move closer to their workplace?  Not necessarily.  I say this because in many cases moving closer to one’s workplace will mean facing buying a more costly home than the current one if shopping for a similar property.  Will people be satisfied to adjust to that by buying a lower priced home that is smaller than their current one or buying a home in a lower cost neighborhood in order to save on fuel costs?

- Higher gas prices mean less money for other things.  Will that cause people to purchase lower-priced homes to save on their mortgages?  In the above scenario, they may be looking at buying closer to work, but with a double whammy of having fewer dollars each month for mortgage payments and looking at relatively higher-cost living quarters, they may decide that the best choice is to stay in their current area rather than move to a lower priced home and make adjustments in other spending choices.

- Higher gas prices affect all kinds of spending, so there may be options to adjust on many other fronts.  Purchasing vehicles that get higher mileage is an option for those who are dependent on cars or trucks for their commuting.  Spending less on going out to eat or on new clothes or new gadgets is another option that could go a long way to making up for the increased cost of transportation. 

The point here is that the question of how people will respond to higher gas prices varies with each person’s circumstances.  There are those who can’t bear to give up their daily latte at Starbucks who would instead skip going to dinner and a movie on the weekend.  Others will switch to shopping at consignment shops instead of boutiques in order to keep their gas tanks topped up.  Life offers many choices in how we spend our hard-earned bucks, so each person will make those choices based on their own personal preferences that mean the most to them. 

There will be those in the short-term who will look at their real estate choices as something they can adjust in order to tolerate high gas prices, but I suspect most will make the shorter term changes that can be easily reversed and adopt a wait-and-see attitude to the question of whether or not high gas prices will continue.  There are plenty of dire predictions that gas prices will keep going up, but frankly, over my lifetime, I’ve seen so many economist’s predictions become worthless in hindsight, I’ll opt for the wait-and-see approach for a few years before I think it will affect people’s’ real estate choices.

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I’ve written about some of the changes in our new offer to purchase contract that went into use in North Carolina on January 1 (see HERE), and Realtors® in our area are still grappling with how to best represent their clients given the new rules.  Recently, Charlotte Observer columnist Allen Norwood wrote about this and included some information about due diligence fees.  He stated that the fees are negotiable and likely in the range of $50-$100 range.  That was apparently based on limited conversations with an area agent or two.  In the meantime, one of our agents, Fran Park, emailed Allen to take issue with that statement from the standpoint that we’ve not been using this approach long enough to be anywhere near figuring out what “normal” is for this detail.  To his credit, Allen called Fran to discuss the subject in more detail, then followed up the next column with some clarification.

So, right now, I think the only fairly sure conclusion is that offers on foreclosed properties don’t need to have any due diligence fee in the offer (they still should have some earnest money).  The thinking is that the bank is not likely to be swayed by such an up-front fee, and in some cases like Fannie Mae owned properties, who knows what might happen to that check that goes directly to “the seller.”  In other cases, although it is a buyers’ market, if you really want to put a seller in a good mood when considering your offer, it is probably good psychology to offer some substantial due diligence fee.  This is because properties that are under contract in the Active Due Diligence Period are not as attractive to potential buyers who may choose not to look at it.  In other words, when in that Due Diligence Period, a seller is largely taking their house off the market during that period with no assurance that the buyer will close on the property.  Most will, but some won’t for a variety of reasons.  This is especially sensitive right now as we enter what’s normally the most active season for real estate sales.  Sellers don’t want to miss out on being available, but they also want to entertain reasonable and attractive offers.

So, the amount will be based on how the seller and buyer agree to value whatever amount of time is established for the Due Diligence Period, whether 3-4 weeks to get inspections, surveys and financing done, or even longer in some cases.  The amount can be based on all kinds of formulas such as the pro-rated daily mortgage cost, the pro-rated equivalent rental rate, or it could be just some number grabbed from the air.  There is no “normal” and there is no “right” other than the amount on which the buyer and seller agree.

I suspect that over time, we’ll start seeing some patterns emerge, and they could be unique to each market area.  Right now, we just have to talk it out in negotiations and try to keep our eyes on working out a win-win arrangement for our clients.

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A recent post from this blog discussed the need for sellers to be realistic and aware of the market in which they’re selling and the nature of their competition.  Today, I visited a couple of new home sellers at their models and came away with some competitive information that real estate property re-sellers should keep in mind.

In the Mooresville subdivision of Wellesley, Lennar is one of several builders who’ve recently come into the subdivision that was struggling after previous builders pulled out.  They are building homes in the 2,200-2,900 square foot range with double garages, quarter acre lots and they’re designed and built for energy efficiency.  They are also very well-appointed with few options since they’ve chosen to include most of the options buyers prefer.  Right now while they’re aggressively marketing their inventory homes, the homes are priced at $75-$79/sq. ft..  They say that their prices will be higher for future homes, but their published future prices are still only about $10/sq. ft. higher.  And those prices include Lennar’s paying 2% of the sales price toward closing costs.

To put this in perspective, I did an MLS search for Mooresville resale homes in the 2,200 to 2,900 sq. ft. range that are similar in terms of construction, size of lot, type of neighborhood, etc. that have sold in Mooresville since last July.  The average price per square foot for those resale homes was $84.22.  Of course, there are many variables that make this $/sq. ft. calculation quite approximate, but sellers should still see this as a wake-up call.  Most buyers are looking for the best value for their dollar, and new construction is always appealing to many because of the promise of no maintenance issues for a considerable time into the future.  When pricing properties, sellers should get information such as the above from their listing agents to help them understand the market into which they’re hoping to sell their properties, then price their properties appropriately.  By the way, for those resale properties mentioned the Sale Price to List Price ratio was 96% based on the last list price.  For many, if we looked back at the original list prices vs. the eventual sale price, that percentage would be much lower.

Later in the day, I talked with some reps from Eastwood homes about their prices and selling tools.  One interesting thing they’re doing is offering to help renters buy out their leases.  Since there are plenty of people who are renting now due to various circumstances who would like to get back into home ownership, and unexpired lease terms can get in the way of a sale, I thought that this solution was quite good.  As a seller, would you be willing to do that?  Might be just the ticket to make the sale happen.

New home builders have bought land at very good prices, and that’s allowing them to sell their products at very aggressive prices.  That’s all part of the market that sellers (and buyers) should recognize.

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In the real estate business, buyers rely on their agents to provide lots of information to help them with their choices.  When they finally choose a property on which to make an offer, they particularly want two important pieces of information.  One is knowing what their alternatives are.  In other words, what properties are in competition with the target property.  They get that in their initial property search.  The other piece is knowing what other buyers have paid recently for similar properties.  Almost every buyer wants to know this because they don’t want to pay too much, with “too much” being based on those similar sales.  Agents look in the records of recent sales to provide that information to the buyer.  These pieces of info, plus other details about the useability of the property, tax bills, financing options, etc. are what the buyer and agent use to come up with a target price for the property in question.

Sellers sometimes have difficulty grasping these fundamental facts.  Instead, they base their decision on what they want to sell their property for on things like what it would’ve sold for a couple of years ago, what they need to get to pay off their mortgage, what they need to get to buy the next property, or what some relative or neighbor told them their property “ought to be” worth.  The fact is, the buyers in the market don’t care a whit about any of that (see buyers information desires above).  They are just looking for a property that will meet their needs, and one that they can get at a price based on the recent and current market.  If I had a dollar for every time I’ve heard a seller say, “well, I’m not going to give it away!”, I’d have a nice little nest egg.  They just don’t get the fact that the buyers don’t care.

The dilemma I face with sellers like this is that to tell them the truth is often to cause them to look for another Realtor who will tell them what they want to hear just to get the listing.  They do this because they’ve seen plenty of times when a seller will list at too high a price, but will eventually wear down and start dropping their price until it maybe sells after a year or more on the market.  In some cases, because the market is soft, buyers will “low ball” offers just to see what kind of good deal they can find, and tired sellers will sometimes take the deal.  The trouble with that approach is that when prices are continuing to fall, the seller ends up taking less than they would’ve gotten if they’d priced their property realistically with the then-current market, effectively shooting themselves in the foot.

So, is honesty the best policy?  I think so due to what I understand is my fiduciary duty to do what’s in the best interests of my clients.  Do I lose business because of it?  I guess so.  Is that “being honest to a fault?”  Maybe, but I think for me, it’s worth it in the long run.

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The Housing Opportunity Foundation, the charitable arm of the Charlotte Regional Realtors Association, recently held a workshop for Realtors on foreclosure prevention.  Many might think that is an odd thing for Realtors to pursue, but it really isn’t. It’s true that we won’t have a chance to sell a property that avoids foreclosure, but we Realtors have some very good reasons to help people avoid that calamity.

Years ago, when we were working on a market analysis for a prospective seller or buyer, we would occasionally see foreclosures among the other similar properties that had closed.  They were rare enough that we didn’t put much weight on them to influence our recommendations on market price.  Nowadays, foreclosures are such a large part of the real estate market that we, and lenders’ appraisers, can’t avoid considering them as a substantial part of the market.  That part continues to drag down the overall prices of houses currently on the market.  It also does great damage to neighborhoods that otherwise might be thriving.  Sellers of non-foreclosure homes have great difficulty adjusting to the market that is so heavily influenced by these foreclosures.  In order to compete, they must drop their prices far lower than they’d like.  Foreclosures are so much on the minds of buyers that I’ve had several begin their conversations with me with “find me a foreclosure”, asking me to ignore the rest of the available homes.  This is not a good idea since there are some very good deals to be had from non-foreclosure sellers who know they have to compete with these foreclosures and short sales.

Our industry gurus say that we still have at least another year of heavy foreclosures ahead. Realtors are trying to do everything we can to help people avoid them.  At our workshop we heard from many providers of free guidance for people who might be facing foreclosure.  Of particular interest was the presentation by Tami Hinton, Director of Consumer Affairs of the NC Office of the Commissioner of Banks.  She provided two web sites that have tons of info on how to get help and guidance to avoid foreclosure.  The sites are www.fightncforeclosure.org and www.ncforeclosurehelp.org.  If you or someone you know may be facing this problem, these sites can be of immense help.  If the problem is addressed early, very often it can be worked out for the homeowner to stay in the home.

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